By PETER ENAV (AP) – 21 hours ago

CISHAN, Taiwan — Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou sharply raised the expected death toll from Typhoon Morakot on Friday to more than 500, amid mounting criticism of his handling of the worst storm to strike the island in over 50 years.

Ma gave the new estimate to a national security conference, the first called since he took office 15 months ago.

It dramatically raised the previous toll by concluding that 380 of about 600 people living in the mountainous village of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan perished when flash flooding unleashed calamitous mudslides that buried the community early Sunday.

"The estimated death toll so far has been 120 people," the president told the conference. "In addition about 380 people died in Shiao Lin, so the total death toll will exceed 500."

National security conferences are only held when Taiwan faces extremely serious disasters or grave situations in defense or diplomatic affairs.

Criticism of Ma's handling of the Morakot disaster is rising quickly — even within Ma's own party and in media outlets normally friendly to the president.

即使是親馬媒體(藍媒)也批評馬的災後處理

Much of the criticism focused on comments he made Thursday to Britain's Independent Television News in which he appeared to blame Morakot victims for their own fate.

許多批評的重點在於馬對英媒體記者的回應時把責任推給民眾

"They were not fully prepared. If they were, they should have been evacuated much earlier," Ma told an ITN reporter. "They didn't realize how serious the disaster was."

Taiwan's normally pro-Ma China Times newspaper lambasted the president for the remarks, saying they were badly out of place.

"It is not presidential to tell international media that the blame falls on people who would not evacuate in order to safeguard their own homes," the newspaper said.

Ma also has come under fire for his handling of government efforts to save storm victims and help the island's hard-hit south recover.

"If we expect the people to do everything themselves, what do we need a government for?" chided lawmaker Lo Shu-lei of Ma's ruling Nationalist Party. Ma "seems to be out of the loop and doesn't understand the way the relief system works," she said.

"如果什麼都要民眾自己來,那政府要做什麼?"執政黨(國民黨)立委羅淑蕾說.

The criticism of Ma is reminiscent of the hostile reaction to former President George W. Bush's handling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — criticism that played a major role in turning public opinion against the U.S. leader.

對馬的批評與小布希在2005年卡崔納颶風之後飽受批評雷同, 是民眾轉向對領導人不信任的一個重要原因.

It is significant because Ma has embarked on an aggressive campaign to improve relations with rival China, from which Taiwan split amid civil war in 1949. While most people still back the reconciliation efforts, support is slipping amid opposition claims that they are making Taiwan economically dependent on the mainland and undermining its de facto independence.

Should the impression be created that Ma failed badly in responding to the Morakot challenge, support for his China initiative could falter further as more people question his overall leadership ability.

For its part, China is preparing to send additional storm assistance to Taiwan, the official Xinhua News Agency said, without giving details. In addition, the Chinese Red Cross Society, an official Buddhist association, and five leading Chinese companies have offered another 25 million yuan ($3.5 million) in cash for Taiwan relief work.

Taiwan's own rescue efforts continued with emotional scenes at Cishan Junior High School, a focal point of relief operations.

As a helicopter bearing storm survivors landed Friday at the school's improvised landing zone, anxious friends and relatives pressed forward, hoping their loved ones had finally been brought to safety.

There was joy for some, sadness for others.

"We have been waiting here for a week," said Hsieh Hsien-hui of Mei Lan village, after seeing her parents disembark from an arriving helicopter. "When we saw them coming, we were overjoyed."

Morakot dumped more than 80 inches (two meters) of rain on the island last weekend and stranded thousands in villages in the mountainous south. A total of 15,400 villagers have been ferried to safety, and rescuers are working to save another 1,900 people. The storm destroyed the homes of 7,000 people and caused agricultural and property damage in excess of 50 billion New Taiwan dollars ($1.5 billion), Ma told the security conference.

Rescuers have relied on helicopters to reach the worst-hit areas, and on Thursday authorities requested larger choppers from foreign governments capable of carrying earth-moving equipment and shelters.

Many villagers have conducted their own rescue operations. More than 20,000 troops have joined civilian workers in rescue, cleanup and rehabilitation work, officials said.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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extended reading:

Taiwan president accused of slow action after deadly typhoon

Anger Grows in Taiwan Over Typhoon Rescue (WSJ, Aug20)

這是經濟學人(Economist)的報導,提到中國與馬政府利用貿易(ECFA)促統. 台灣民眾醒醒吧! 更何況ECFA的負面效果不清,從政府文宣看來,電子業本來會損失3500億變成零,宣稱的會貢獻GDP1.65~1.72%的數據可信嗎?

中文相關報導:
經濟學人：ECFA恐是中國促統詭計
民進黨：經濟學人警示 凸顯馬欺瞞
國民黨：簽ＥＣＦＡ 一天也不能等


以下原文:
--------------------

Taiwan and China
Reunification by trade? Aug 6th 2009 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

A plethora of free-trade deals is driving Taiwan closer to China

FREE-TRADE agreements (FTAs) are often contentious but rarely would one have as much strategic significance as that proposed between China and Taiwan. On July 29th Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, elected last year on a platform of liberalising business restrictions and easing military tensions with the mainland, said a China-Taiwan trade pact should be signed as soon as possible. The two sides have quietly concluded months of unofficial negotiations and Taiwan’s economy minister, Yiin Chii-ming, says he wants formal negotiations to start in October. The island is in a hurry.

Mr Ma is willing to take the political risk of tying a self-ruled democratic island economically to its giant authoritarian neighbour because of the rest of the world’s craze for free-trade deals. Taiwan has diplomatic relations with 23 countries. Most nations recognise China and fear to sign FTAs with Taiwan lest they incur China’s wrath. Already, says Huang Chih-peng, the director general of Taiwan’s Bureau of Foreign Trade, the world’s 230-odd bilateral or multilateral trade pacts are harming the export-dependent island’s economy.

Mr Ma is even more worried about what will happen next year when trade agreements between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations—so-called ASEAN+1—take effect. Taiwan’s exports to China face tariffs ranging from 5% to 15% and its government fears that, unless they are lowered, the island will be left at a competitive disadvantage in the giant Chinese market. This disadvantage would greatly worsen if a planned ASEAN+3 were one day signed, embracing South Korea and Japan.

Economic benefits, political costs
A think-tank commissioned by the government said the proposed pact could increase Taiwanese GDP by 1.65-1.72%—more if services and investment were included. In addition, it argued, the pact could increase foreign direct investment by $8.9 billion in seven years and create around 260,000 jobs (though other economists said this was too high). The president wants an outline agreement in place before ASEAN+1 comes into force, with the details worked out and implemented bit by bit after that. An incremental approach, officials say, is needed because an immediate FTA would be too disruptive to Taiwan’s economy.

Disruptive is right, but not perhaps mainly to the economy. China still asserts that Taiwan is an integral part of the People’s Republic. Many Taiwanese, including the pro-independence opposition party, fear that the proposed accord is really a ploy by China to bring about unification by stealth. They also argue that once the pact is signed, there is no guarantee that China will not lean on members of other FTAs to keep Taiwan out anyway. In contrast, Mr Ma insists that the proposed pact would make it easier for Taiwan to sign free-trade accords with third parties.

“It is a suicidal policy that makes Taiwan locked into China,” says Huang Kun-huei, the chairman of the pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union. In a sign of the popular unease raised by the pact, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, which has virtually no parliamentary clout, still managed to collect over 120,000 signatories to a petition asking the government for a referendum on it (though Taiwan’s high threshold for referendum participation means that such a thing may not get off the ground).

In fact, dramatic political shifts seem unlikely in the short term. Mr Ma has promised that when the deal is negotiated, the wording will not compromise the island’s political stance. And China-watchers think the increasingly sophisticated government in Beijing is not likely to make heavy-handed political demands in case this rebounds on Mr Ma and he is voted out of office in 2012 (the Chinese much prefer him to the independence-minded opposition). Nevertheless, in the long run China hopes that economic interdependency and goodwill will eventually encourage the island to return to the fold. The trade pact will be a test of whether that hope can be fulfilled.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

這是美國民歌史上最重要的作品之一，原作者是被公認為民歌一代宗師的 Bob Dylan，不過第一個把它唱紅的卻是 Peter , Paul & Mary三重唱，並且在 1963年奪得全美排行的亞軍。
第二次世界大戰，使得所有參戰國都元氣大傷，美國也不例外。戰後的新生代由於不願重蹈父兄的覆轍，建立起了新的價值觀，對於上一代所喜愛的一切，幾乎全盤予以否定，甚至開創了全新的搖滾文化。1957年，越戰爆發，美國介入了這場戰爭，投入大量人力、物力，還派遣子弟兵遠渡重洋，前往越南戰場，造成了慘重的傷亡，因此美國社會掀起了一股反戰的熱潮。在這同時，民歌也開始在全美各地校園流行起來，許多知識青年不僅利用他們所創作的民歌發表抗議的聲音，更積極的加入示威的群眾運動。
Bob Dylan在傳奇性的民歌宗師 Woody Guthrie啟迪下進入民歌界，很快的以獨特的風格在格林威治村以及各大校園受到注意。1962年四月，他以深具內涵的創作技巧譜出「Blowing in the Wind」的時候，才是個二十剛出頭的小夥子。這是他最早的「抗議歌曲」，對人們傳統觀念中「男子漢」的定義提出了質疑，希望世人能以和平而理性的態度來解決爭端，不要再對世間的不幸視而不見、聽而不聞，更不要再讓無辜的人們繼續喪生在戰火之中。
不過，儘管 Bob Dylan的創作內涵受到了肯定，他的歌喉卻實在不討喜，因此他早期的好些作品都是藉由其他藝人的歌聲才成名的，其中又以 Peter , Paul & Mary功勞最大，連續唱紅了好幾首他的作品。這支三重唱也是美國民歌史上最重要的團體之一，除了完美的和聲之外，三位團員積極參與各種抗議的群眾運動，數十年如一日，堅持的信念跟態度跟他們的歌聲一樣出名。他們成立於 1961年，「Blowing in the Wind」也是他們藉以成名的最重要作品之一。
 
Blowin' in the wind 飄在風中

How many roads must a man walk down 一個男人得走過多少路
Before they call him a man 在他被稱為男子漢之前
How many seas must a white dove sail 一隻白鴿得飛過多少座海洋
Before she sleeps in the sand 才能在沙灘上安睡
How many times must the cannon balls fly 加農砲還得發射多少次
Before they're forever banned 才會被永遠禁止
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind 答案啊！朋友，就飄在風裡
The answer is blowing in the wind 答案飄在茫茫的風裡
How many years must a mountain exist 一座山能存在多久
Before it is washed to the sea 在它被沖刷入海之前
How many years can some people exist 人們究竟能存活多少年
Before they're allowed to be free 在他們獲得自由以前
How many times can a man turn his head 一個人能掉過頭去幾次
And pretend that he just doesn't see 假裝他視而不見
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind 答案啊！朋友，飄在風裡
The answer is blowing in the wind 答案就飄在茫茫的風裡
 
How many times must a man look up 一個人得仰望幾次
Before he can see the sky 才能看得見藍天
How many ears must one man have 一個人得有多少雙耳朵
Before he can hear people cry 才能聽見人們的哭泣
How many deaths will it take 還得有多少人死亡
'Till he knows that too many people have died 他才能明白已有太多人喪生
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind 答案啊！朋友，飄在風裡
The answer is blowing in the wind  答案就飄在茫茫的風裡

以下則是讓我聯想到這首歌的現代詩, 燈塔. 不知什麼原因我總覺得和Blowin' in the Wind 很相似啊?  有人和我想法一樣的嗎? 

 

 

「燈塔」全文如下：

 

一百年的歲月，能留下多少痕跡？

 

一百年的歷史，能寫下多少故事？

 

我卻看見你，一個平凡的生命， 走過最艱難的時光，挺立成永恆的燈塔。

在俄羅斯古老的大地，你磨練自己， 像礦工，尋找中國未來的燃煤。

 

在贛南，你深入最貧困的家庭， 想建設公平幸福的人間。

 

在上海，你和特權戰鬥， 凸顯清廉正直的價值。

 

在舟山群島，你帶領軍民大撤退， 在戰火中，保存著最頑強的意志。

 

在中橫，你夜宿在寒冷的荒山， 用平凡的雙手，開鑿出連結勇氣與毅力的道路。

 

在全球石油危機的風暴中，你把風雨變成動力， 推動十大建設，創造經濟奇蹟。

 

在民主改革的道路上，你毅然改寫歷史， 讓自由成為台灣永恆的價值。

 

在兩岸長久的隔絕中，你開放探親， 讓親情重新連結，讓歷史走出更寬廣的道路。

在每一個你曾走過的台灣鄉村， 在每一塊你建設過的土地上， 你不曾留下痕跡，唯一留下的， 是人們擁有了更好的生活。

 

我們恆久的紀念你，在自己的心中。

像一座燈塔，照亮我們奮鬥的方向。

 

我們會帶著你的智慧、愛心和勇氣，在風暴中成長 。

 

未來的孩子將會記得你平凡的背影， 你像夕陽，雖然西下，卻留下滿天金色的光芒。 980409

 

 

 

 Photo: Krystian Zimerman in 2005. Credit: Kasslara. (source: LA Times)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LA TIMES

What led to Krystian Zimerman's surprising comments, walkouts 6:03 AM, April 28, 2009 Polish pianist Krystian Zimerman, who is widely admired for his virtuosic performances and who famously tours with his own custom-altered Steinway, created a furor at Disney Hall on Sunday night when he stopped his recital to announce that this would be his last American appearance -- in protest of the nation's military policies overseas. In a low voice that could not be heard throughout the auditorium, Zimerman, universally considered among the world's finest pianists, made reference to Guantanamo Bay and U.S. military policies toward Poland. "Get your hands off my country," he said. [後略] 這是前一天洛杉磯時報的報導-- Krystian Zimerman's shocking Disney Hall debut 12:24 AM, April 27, 2009 Poland's Krystian Zimerman, widely regarded as one of the finest pianists in the world, created a furor Sunday night in his debut at Walt Disney Concert Hall when he announced this would be his last performance in America because of the nation's military policies overseas. Before playing the final work on his recital, Karol Szymanowski’s "Variations on a Polish Folk Theme," Zimerman sat silently at the piano for a moment, almost began to play, but then turned to the audience. In a quiet but angry voice that did not project well, he indicated that he could no longer play in a country whose military wants to control the whole world.  “Get your hands off of my country,” he said.  He also made reference to the U.S. military detention camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.   About 30 or 40 people in the audience walked out, some shouting obscenities.  “Yes,” he answered, “some people when they hear the word military start marching.” Others remained but booed or yelled for him to shut up and play the piano.  But many more cheered.  Zimerman responded by saying that America has far finer things to export than the military, and he thanked those who support democracy. For the first half of the recital, Zimerman had played a Bach Partita and Beethoven’s last piano sonata, Opus 111, with firm determination.  After intermission he made a last minute substitution, exchanging late Brahms works for a 1953 sonata by Polish composer Grazyna Bacewicz.  The Szymanowski variations, which closed the program, was played with an astonishing ferocity that brought nothing but tumultuous cheers.  There was no encore. The pianist was not available after the concert for further comment. Zimerman has had problems in the United States in recent years.  He travels with his own Steinway piano, which he has altered himself.  But shortly after 9/11, the instrument was confiscated at JFK Airport when he landed in New York to give a recital at Carnegie Hall.  Thinking the glue smelled funny, the TSA decided to take no chances and destroyed the instrument.  Since then he has shipped his pianos in parts, which he reassembles by hand after he lands.  He also drives the truck himself when he carries his instrument from city to city over land, as he did after playing a recital in Berkeley on Friday. MONDAY UPDATE: Review: Krystian Zimerman's controversial appearance at Disney Hall  TUESDAY UPDATE: What led to Krystian Zimerman's surprising comments, walkouts -- Mark Swed Photo: Krystian Zimerman in 2005. Credit: Kasslara.

 

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現在感謝中國善意只是正面且公開的向中國稱臣而已啊!  

 

 

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

---------

延伸閱讀:

China Demonstrates 'Goodwill' to Taiwan

只摘錄部份如下:

The decision to let Taiwan attend the World Health Assembly meeting helps address what has been one of the more emotionally charged issues dividing Taiwan and China. Taiwanese have long been frustrated by their inability to participate in international groups -- especially the WHO, given its important role fighting outbreaks of disease such as the current swine-flu outbreak. During the 2003 SARS epidemic, which killed 37 people in Taiwan, restrictions on interaction with Taiwan meant that WHO officials didn't arrive on the island until more than a month after the first infections began appearing -- a delay that angered many in Taiwan.

Taiwan's participation in the WHO will still be limited: Its observer status means it won't have a vote on policy, and it appears that Taiwan's invitation may need to be renewed every year, leaving the possibility that Beijing could withhold consent in the future. WHO officials didn't respond to requests for comment.

But Taiwanese officials were pleased at the invitation. Mr. Ma, the president, said the invitation represents "goodwill" from China's leadership.

看清楚沒啊! 之前SARS 死了37人,激怒了很多台灣人. 而現在馬先生卻說這是中國展現善意, 真是夠了啊

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延伸:http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dfg2fh6w_28cp7c2mf9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(待續) 

 

[1] 講個好笑的無聊事情: 去遊樂場打太多警察捉犯人的電動玩具,因為射擊太多次結果手指長水泡, 週一上班時後打電腦手很痛才發現

 

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全文: 'Human Rights' in Chinese  The human-rights 'action plan' won't fool anyone

我一直想看外國人對郭冠英事件的看法(報導), 現在終於有一篇,轉載如下. 這裡有中文翻譯

至於我自己的看法? 沒有太多想表示的, 關於自認為高級一事, 還是借鐵娘子的老話一句--
Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't.

擁有權利的人就像淑女,如果你需要告訴別人你是, 那麼你就不是. 將此話的powerful改成高級,
如果一個人需要自己吹噓或是告訴別人自己是高級人,那麼他/她就不是. [1]

-----------
Official's pro-China claim causes uproar in Taiwan, The Associated Press
Published: March 18, 2009

TAIPEI, Taiwan: President Ma Ying-jeou's efforts to build a diverse communal coalition have taken a hit after an official was alleged to have called Taiwan's majority population "primitive" and suggested China should use force to seize the island.
The affair is a huge embarrassment to Ma, who has worked hard to unite Taiwan's fractious communal groups to support his ambitious China engagement program, despite continuing Chinese threats to take over democratic Taiwan by force.

While it is unlikely to delay the program's implementation — it still enjoys strong support — it could cost Ma's party votes in this year's local elections, as so-called "native Taiwanese" return to the communally conscious — and anti-China — opposition, the Democratic Progressive Party.
The affair burst into the limelight late last week when Kuo Kuan-ying of Taiwan's representative office in Toronto admitted he described himself in a newspaper essay as a "superior mainlander" — a politically charged reference to the 2 million people who came to the island in 1949 after the Chinese civil war and dominated its institutions for the next 50 years.

Amid growing local outrage, Kuo denied more serious charges of referring to the majority population of native Taiwanese as "primitives," and writing that "China should use force to take over" Taiwan, even though the island "was not qualified" to unite with Beijing.

Lawmakers identified with the interests of native Taiwanese have led the public criticism against Kuo. They say a pen name he is known to have used was on an essay that contained those inflammatory anti-Taiwan, pro-China statements.

Ma, whose parents were born in China, is particularly vulnerable on that issue, because he is struggling against a widespread perception that many mainlanders favor unity with China. Taiwan split from the mainland amid civil war in 1949, and has been self-governing ever since.
Relations between mainlanders and native Taiwanese — people whose ancestors came to the island from China in the 17th and 18th centuries — have long delineated a crucial political fault line on Taiwan. Native Taiwanese struggled hard against the pro-mainlander policies of Chiang Kai-shek and son Chiang Ching-kuo until 1987 when they were finally able to form a political party of their own.

That party came to power in Taiwan's second free presidential elections in 2000, but was soundly defeated by Ma's Nationalists eight years later. A major advantage for Ma, who took office 10 months ago, was his success in shedding the Nationalists' exclusive mainlander image and adopting a more bi-communal personna in its place.

The lawmakers are demanding that Kuo be stripped of his job at the Government Information Office — rather than his actual punishment of being demoted and transferred back to Taipei.
Even rival lawmakers from the ruling Nationalist Party — long identified with mainlander interests — say Kuo's punishment is not enough.

"It is unreasonable that the government is not sanctioning him more severely," said Tsao Erh-chang. National Taipei University political scientist Hou Han-jyun said Monday that Kuo's relatively light punishment was "stirring up communal hatred" and that the matter "needs quick government intervention."

Political commentator Chung Nien-huang said, "Kuo Kuan-ying simply said what Ma and (his government) are really thinking — that they are superior mainlanders."

[1] 我以前就常跟朋友講,那種名片上要印一堆抬頭的其實都不是什麼了不起的名人. 王永慶的名片只要印王永慶就夠了, 完全不需要靠抬頭來告訴別人他是誰.

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延伸閱讀:
很有趣的一篇. 范蘭欽的受害者

我甚少在公開部落格講個人對經濟的一些看法,原因很簡單, 它不是我的專長. 之前我在不開放的部落格講到一些個人對Obama當選後的感想 (需要密碼,因為是不開放的), 當時(2008年11月八日寫的)我提到我對經濟悲觀的看法, 節錄如下--

2. 美國經濟不會好. 不會好的原因有幾個. 第一個,民主黨向來是主張大政府的(特別此次民主黨也在國會佔優勢,總統+國會........我看大政府是跑不掉了). (後略) 第二個原因是, 歐巴馬主張管制經濟與保護主義. 不相信自由貿易,不相信市場機制(其實很諷刺!) 管制經濟的下場是處以凌遲,慢慢死的那種. (後略) 第三個原因是,歐巴馬如果是極端或說傳統的民主黨, 那公司稅一定會加稅. 公司稅增加的結果最後羊毛出在羊身上,倒楣的是員工啦. 美國的公司稅現在已經偏高了(35%),...新加坡一開始獨立給外商7年免稅! 相比之下美國的公司稅已經這麼高了,還加,會好到哪啊? 為什麼加公司稅?(後略)

現在看到這篇史丹佛大學經濟教授的文章, 真是深得我心啊!

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[轉載開始]
前一篇才講到美國貨條款對美國經濟的影響, 現在就有這篇新聞.

Obama's Radicalism Is Killing the Dow A financial crisis is the worst time to change the foundations of American capitalism

By MICHAEL J. BOSKIN
It's hard not to see the continued sell-off on Wall Street and the growing fear on Main Street as a product, at least in part, of the realization that our new president's policies are designed to radically re-engineer the market-based U.S. economy, not just mitigate the recession and financial crisis.
Martin Kozlowski

The illusion that Barack Obama will lead from the economic center has quickly come to an end. Instead of combining the best policies of past Democratic presidents -- John Kennedy on taxes, Bill Clinton on welfare reform and a balanced budget, for instance -- President Obama is returning to Jimmy Carter's higher taxes and Mr. Clinton's draconian defense drawdown.

看到沒,就說民主黨當選增稅的可能性遠大過於減稅. 實在不是我烏鴉嘴啊! 之前也講過要是希拉蕊出線,美國經濟不會這麼慘的原因....

Mr. Obama's $3.6 trillion budget blueprint, by his own admission, redefines the role of government in our economy and society. The budget more than doubles the national debt held by the public, adding more to the debt than all previous presidents -- from George Washington to George W. Bush -- combined. It reduces defense spending to a level not sustained since the dangerous days before World War II, while increasing nondefense spending (relative to GDP) to the highest level in U.S. history. And it would raise taxes to historically high levels (again, relative to GDP). And all of this before addressing the impending explosion in Social Security and Medicare costs.

看吧! 就說民主黨向來主張大政府...(有興趣可看這篇英文的報導; 還有這個....後面這個直接提到"The president has not explained to Americans that if they want bigger government, they will have to pay for it")

To be fair, specific parts of the president's budget are admirable and deserve support: increased means-testing in agriculture and medical payments; permanent indexing of the alternative minimum tax and other tax reductions; recognizing the need for further financial rescue and likely losses thereon; and bringing spending into the budget that was previously in supplemental appropriations, such as funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The specific problems, however, far outweigh the positives. First are the quite optimistic forecasts, despite the higher taxes and government micromanagement that will harm the economy. The budget projects a much shallower recession and stronger recovery than private forecasters or the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are projecting. It implies a vast amount of additional spending and higher taxes, above and beyond even these record levels. For example, it calls for a down payment on universal health care, with the additional "resources" needed "TBD" (to be determined).

Mr. Obama has bravely said he will deal with the projected deficits in Medicare and Social Security. While reform of these programs is vital, the president has shown little interest in reining in the growth of real spending per beneficiary, and he has rejected increasing the retirement age. Instead, he's proposed additional taxes on earnings above the current payroll tax cap of $106,800 -- a bad policy that would raise marginal tax rates still further and barely dent the long-run deficit.

Increasing the top tax rates on earnings to 39.6% and on capital gains and dividends to 20% will reduce incentives for our most productive citizens and small businesses to work, save and invest -- with effective rates higher still because of restrictions on itemized deductions and raising the Social Security cap. As every economics student learns, high marginal rates distort economic decisions, the damage from which rises with the square of the rates (doubling the rates quadruples the harm). The president claims he is only hitting 2% of the population, but many more will at some point be in these brackets.

經濟上的鐵律: people respond to incentives. 之前就講過, 違反人性的制度是不會持久的....美國開始走向共產制度了嗎? 好啦,是社會主義, 還沒到共產主義,可以吧?!


As for energy policy, the president's cap-and-trade plan for CO2 would ensnare a vast network of covered sources, opening up countless opportunities for political manipulation, bureaucracy, or worse. It would likely exacerbate volatility in energy prices, as permit prices soar in booms and collapse in busts. The European emissions trading system has been a dismal failure. A direct, transparent carbon tax would be far better.

Moreover, the president's energy proposals radically underestimate the time frame for bringing alternatives plausibly to scale. His own Energy Department estimates we will need a lot more oil and gas in the meantime, necessitating $11 trillion in capital investment to avoid permanently higher prices.

The president proposes a large defense drawdown to pay for exploding nondefense outlays -- similar to those of Presidents Carter and Clinton -- which were widely perceived by both Republicans and Democrats as having gone too far, leaving large holes in our military. We paid a high price for those mistakes and should not repeat them.

The president's proposed limitations on the value of itemized deductions for those in the top tax brackets would clobber itemized charitable contributions, half of which are by those at the top. This change effectively increases the cost to the donor by roughly 20% (to just over 72 cents from 60 cents per dollar donated). Estimates of the responsiveness of giving to after-tax prices range from a bit above to a little below proportionate, so reductions in giving will be large and permanent, even after the recession ends and the financial markets rebound.

A similar effect will exacerbate tax flight from states like California and New York, which rely on steeply progressive income taxes collecting a large fraction of revenue from a small fraction of their residents. This attack on decentralization permeates the budget -- e.g., killing the private fee-for-service Medicare option -- and will curtail the experimentation, innovation and competition that provide a road map to greater effectiveness.

The pervasive government subsidies and mandates -- in health, pharmaceuticals, energy and the like -- will do a poor job of picking winners and losers (ask the Japanese or Europeans) and will be difficult to unwind as recipients lobby for continuation and expansion. Expanding the scale and scope of government largess means that more and more of our best entrepreneurs, managers and workers will spend their time and talent chasing handouts subject to bureaucratic diktats, not the marketplace needs and wants of consumers.

Our competitors have lower corporate tax rates and tax only domestic earnings, yet the budget seeks to restrict deferral of taxes on overseas earnings, arguing it drives jobs overseas. But the academic research (most notably by Mihir Desai, C. Fritz Foley and James Hines Jr.) reveals the opposite: American firms' overseas investments strengthen their domestic operations and employee compensation.

看吧! 就說美國的公司稅已經過高了,之前我就講過馬侃的經濟政策(減公司稅)是比較好的,可惜叫好不叫座. 之前也講過新加坡建國初期如何利用海外投資增強自己的經濟實力...看我沒說錯吧

New and expanded refundable tax credits would raise the fraction of taxpayers paying no income taxes to almost 50% from 38%. This is potentially the most pernicious feature of the president's budget, because it would cement a permanent voting majority with no stake in controlling the cost of general government.

From the poorly designed stimulus bill and vague new financial rescue plan, to the enormous expansion of government spending, taxes and debt somehow permanently strengthening economic growth, the assumptions underlying the president's economic program seem bereft of rigorous analysis and a careful reading of history.

Unfortunately, our history suggests new government programs, however noble the intent, more often wind up delivering less, more slowly, at far higher cost than projected, with potentially damaging unintended consequences. The most recent case, of course, was the government's meddling in the housing market to bring home ownership to low-income families, which became a prime cause of the current economic and financial disaster.

On the growth effects of a large expansion of government, the European social welfare states present a window on our potential future: standards of living permanently 30% lower than ours. Rounding off perceived rough edges of our economic system may well be called for, but a major, perhaps irreversible, step toward a European-style social welfare state with its concomitant long-run economic stagnation is not.

Mr. Boskin is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President George H.W. Bush.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

好笑的新聞--

 

自由日　馬總統：與大陸展開民主自由競賽　台灣有實力贏(2009/01/18 12:38)

"馬總統說，中共已簽署這兩項公約，我們更應該表現比他們對自由、民主更大的承諾，所以「我們跟中國大陸最不需要競爭的就是軍事競賽，我們真的需要競爭的就是民主跟自由的競賽」。 "

先前自由之家年度報告出爐, 台灣是個自由國家,中國是個不自由的國家. 一個拿A的人要和一個拿C的人比, 然後還誇口, 這真是自high的最高境界啊

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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扁密帳／改一字、變一音　扁家假名耍得洗錢防治團團轉(2008/12/07 13:09)

前調查局長葉盛茂的起訴書，點出了陳致中不為人知的另一個名字──Evelin Perkins，巧合的是，跟他的女兒陳潔歆的英文名字Avelin只差一個字母。媒體人黃光芹指出，「他是用他女兒的名義，為什麼這樣說？因為他女兒是受益人，在沒有滿18歲之前，他是她的父親，陳致中可以代理她，就是代她來挪動資金。」

陳致中的名字可不只如此，護照上面的CHEN CHIH-CHUNG，美國安全碼查出來是CHEN BRYAN，或者把性是名字顛倒叫做CHIN CHUNG,CHEN，讓特偵組看得眼花撩亂。

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我在當窮學生碰上小氣老師一文裡提到, 老師M自己點了近40元的餐點,而我和同行的學生E各點19元的餐點,結果結帳時候老師竟然要求我們大家平分,使得我和E都得付出26元. 許多朋友看了該文之後對我說, 那老師也太過分了吧!

 

是啊,而現在這樣的事情又要發生了! 因為我又要去參加研討會,依照慣例的又會有XX(校名) dinner,就是讓大家團聚的時候. 這種讓大家團聚的用意也許不錯,但是撘便車的問題一直讓我很困擾. 像這次,因為研討會所在的巴爾地摩物價頗高,這次負責晚餐的畢業生已經提醒大家要準備足夠的現金,一個主菜大概要25元,如果點飲料,那麼價錢就會更多. 酒精飲料一份大概7元左右,再加上税,一人至少要準備40元的現金.

 

因為一些考量,我一向不在這種場合點酒精飲料的,最多就是點檸檬水之類的,甚至就只喝免費的水. 從以往參加的經驗,我知道大部分的人都會點飲料,反正是大家一起買單.所以我這種不點酒品的人,或是那些摩門教徒,就顯得特別吃虧.

 

DG聽了之後對我說, 那你就點個最貴的海鮮吧! 是啊! 這就是撘便車問題最討人厭的地方了.因為大家都不想被佔便宜, 大家都點自己願意吃的選項裡最貴的, 例如我不點酒品,所以我就點個25+7=32元左右的主餐.每個人都類似想法,結果就是大家最後都付出更多的代價, 大家都吃虧.　

 

我絕對不是唯一有這種想法的人, 系上的其他學生,每個人看到主餐至少要25元,飲料要7元後昨天開始討論要不要集體缺席好了. 

 

解決這種撘便車的問題,最簡單方法就是單獨結帳就好了. 讓每個人對自己的行為負責任,自己享受食物也由自己付出代價. 明明可以單獨結帳就解決的問題,偏偏要搞這種團體付賬法,真是浪費資源.浪費哪些資源呢? 那些因此多付出的餐飲費就是最明顯的,還不包含還沒去吃大家就已經開始討論乾脆集體缺席好了的這種心情上不愉快的成本.

 

回到檢察官與警察的濫權所造成的社會成本. 我不了解為什麼有人可以支持我說的檢察官應該負責冤獄賠償,但卻認為警察濫權就得由國家賠償. 警察的濫權又何嘗和司法人員濫權造成冤獄後應該承擔濫權成本有什麼不同呢? 執法過當就該由相關人士負責，上從下一個無理命令的上屬，下到過度執行的警員都該負責．法律上就是被告，民事上就是被罰．這麼簡單的問題，為什麼要用國家賠償呢？

 

說什麼如果警察有可能被告，那會造成警察不執行命令．　我倒是認為，如果警察會被告，那麼執行命令時候會更加小心拿捏分寸．因為好處（升官，保住工作，盡責的績效考量）  自己享受，成本（執行過當的被告風險）也由自己負擔．為了讓自己的利益最大，警察執行時會更謹慎評估．同樣的，下命令者也會評估，下個不當的命令（像這次，反正來抗議者一率抓，打，扁），好處自己承擔（拍到馬屁因此升官，保住官位等），成本（被告）也自己負擔．那麼高階警長下令時也會更謹慎,而且有動機將週延的執行程度與計畫告訴下屬．我一點都看不出下這種格殺勿論之屬的命令的好處由下令者單獨包辦，但造成的社會成本卻由所有人民負擔的道理在哪？

 

如果你認為相關人員單獨被告（而不是用國賠）就會造成基層員警不執行命令，那麼應該檢討的難道不是是這個命令本身的正當性嗎？　是怎麼樣的命令才會造成只有執行與完全不執行的兩種選擇? 我想到的只有格殺勿論的這種命令. 在戰場上的確不是你死我活，但是在社會上這樣的命令豈不是意味著警長或是下令者（例如更高層的行政官員）把人民當敵人而格殺勿論了嗎？　如果是這樣，那這種人丟了飯碗也是應該的,而這種政府倒掉也是應該的, 絶對不該用被視為敵人的人民納稅錢所構成的國家賠償來替這種人買單．

 

人對誘因做出回應而決定採取什麼樣的行動，如此而已．所謂上有決策下有對策, 也屬此類而已. 這是人性，違反人性的事情（例如共產制度）是不會長久的．

 

曾經在討論"統計是沒有預設立場的嗎?"一文中我提到:

 

那麼相反的,在”虛無假設=有罪”之下,預設的type I error維持在5%, type II error也維持在20%. 此時所謂的type I error就變成是被告有罪(虛無為真)但卻被無罪釋放或不起訴(拒絕虛無假設),也就是說type I error反而是逍遙法外的人只有5%, 而此時的Type II error就是冤獄, 反而高達20%! 可以說是所謂的”寧可錯殺一百(20%), 不可放過一人(5%)”了!! 這是其二!   列表如下:　     Type I error (5%) Type II error (20%) 預設立場(H0):被告無罪 冤獄  (5%) 逍遙法外 預設立場(H0):被告有罪 逍遙法外 冤獄 (20%!)   由此例子顯示當預設立場不同時造成的統計結果有多大之不同! 那麼如果把上述的例子中的 "法律,法官"的虛無假設改成是"媒體記者報導"的虛無假設,各位不妨想想記者的"預設立場"到底有多大的影響,或是有多大的差別了

 

最近檢方的濫權羈押,讓我對這件事情又重新思考.

 

首先,一個文明國家的法律,為了避免冤獄(也就是把冤獄視為比逍遙法外還嚴重),都會盡可能的假設被告是無罪的,也就是所謂的無罪推定原則(the presumption of innocence – being innocent until proven guilty ;第一五四條：「被告未經審判證明有罪確定前，推定其為無罪」). 在這個無罪推定原則的前提之下, 萬一誤判而造成的冤獄的機會會遠小於相反的假設(假設被告有罪,找證據還被告清白), 以上面表格的例子,在其他變數不變下,冤獄的機會分別是5%與20%.

 

無罪推定原則的確立在維護犯罪嫌疑人與被告的合法權益.簡單講就是保障人權的做法. 因為受到法律的保護,檢方濫權的羈押造成社會代價.第一, 檢方的責任在起訴, 在被告沒有串共或逃亡等情況下不應該濫押,否則有違反被告被法律保障的人權之嫌. 以台灣的情況來講，貪污案件的定罪律偏低,只有五成五,相對於全部刑案的定罪律有九成三. 正因為定罪律偏低而造成民眾有違法羈押的疑慮而對司法公正性感到懷疑. 造成人民對司法公正性有所質疑,這是第一個成本. 

 

其次,既然被告的人權受到檢方侵害,一但審判結果無罪,那麼無罪的被告就可以依法申請冤獄賠償. 這個部分就是我說的濫押造成的社會成本. 也就是檢方的濫押行為有 “外部成本”. (這裡有個無罪被押八天國賠四萬的例子.) 那麼台灣的冤獄到底有多少社會成本呢? 以88年為例,冤獄賠償金額高達一億七千五百萬, 而且每年增加中.

 

解決外部性(externality)的最好方式是將外部性內部化,讓行為者享受利益的同時也支付成本. 關於這點, 我有兩件事要講. 第一: 上述的冤獄賠償是檢方造成的外部成本, 如果要內部化就是讓這個冤獄賠償由檢方來負擔. 台灣的制度其實已算健全. 依法在國家負出冤獄賠償之後可以向 “怠職法官求償的權利，但實際上，因司法人員「官官相護」的習性而從未落實求償，顯非負責任的「法治國家」應有的現象！”[1]. 由此可知雖然制度上已有規範,但卻沒有確實執行. 想要解決外部成本內部化的話,這各部分應該確實執行. 

 

第二個關於外部性的問題是當外部性產生的是利益的情況.先舉個簡單的例子: 維修廠的數量與地點往往影響車子的銷售量. 因為保養的方便性可能促使消費者在購車時候決定某產牌的車子. 同樣的,外部性內部化是最好的解決方法(之一),當內部化有困難時,搭便車的問題(free-rider)就很嚴重. 之前台北市長所謂的遊行集會要課稅(這是成本)之所以顯得好笑是因為,如果集會遊行的結果是言論自由這個好處,那麼有沒有機制可以確保只有當初參加遊行集會的付稅者能夠享受到言論自由? 如果沒辦法,那麼其他一般大眾說穿了只是這個言論自由外部利益的free rider而已.

 

當某行為的外部性沒有辦法被內部化,外部利益(如抗議後而獲得的言論自由)就只好由大眾分享,而外部成本(如冤獄而付出的國賠)也就只好由大眾承擔.怎麼承擔? 繳稅啊!

 

 

反之如果放棄所謂的無罪推定原則呢? 也就是假設被告有罪(上面表格藍色字體那一列),或是講好聽點,防範未然, 例如三國志卷38裡的: 時天旱禁酒，釀者有刑。吏於人家索得釀具，論者欲令與作酒者同罰。雍與先主游觀，見一男女行道，謂先主曰：「彼人欲行淫，何以不縛？」先主曰：「卿何以知之？」雍對曰：「彼有其具，與欲釀者同。」先主大笑，而原欲釀者。

 

根據調查(詳見下), 台灣有高達47.3%抱著所謂 “寧可錯殺一百”的心態:

 

台灣社會變遷調查: 第四題 所有司法體系 (法院) 都難免會犯錯，您認為哪一種情況比較嚴重？ 把沒有犯法的人判成有罪：37.7%   (冤獄) 把有犯法的人判成無罪：47.3% (逍遙法外) 沒有另一面資訊，頂多 有無法選擇佔 14.4 %

 

再回到統計上以須無假設=有罪,那麼在其他不變的情況下,台灣的冤獄將是原來的4倍之多(20%的機率 vs 5%),也就是多了三倍, 那麼冤獄付出的社會成本也是三倍,由原來的一億七千五百萬(175000000)增加五億二千五百萬(525000000)而來到七億(700000000)!

 

而這些,還只是機率上的誤判所造成的冤獄而已, 如果有檢察官刻意抱著 “教訓”無辜被告的心態,(例如朱朝亮檢察官在被今週刊訪問時說的,詳見立即停止濫權羈押一文),那麼冤獄將更多,冤獄造成的外部成本也更大. 要改善司法,從落實向怠職法官求償冤獄賠償(即"外部成本內部化")開始吧!

 

 

備註:

1)    DG看了之後提出一個蠻好的觀點. 檢察官的責任如果在起訴, 那麼很有可能檢察官的預設立場是被告有罪,也可能因此造成檢察官濫押的行為(目前台灣看來的確如此). 不過即便如此,冤獄的認定要到了法官判決官司定讞之後確定無罪,那麼之前不必要的羈押部分方可申請所謂的冤獄補償.在無罪推論的前提下,法官的預設立場應該是被告=無罪的.回到完全就機率來看,以表格所舉的例子來講冤獄的可能性還是5%.

2)    既然檢察官的預設立場可能是被告=有罪(上表中藍色),那麼濫押的行為可能很浮濫,如此一來冤獄可能高達20%,那麼就更應該落實冤獄賠償由怠職司法人員付出的政策,使濫押的外部成本可以內部化.

關於這次警察執法過當甚至違法侵害人權,我贊成受害者提告,但我反對提出國賠.我曾經和朋友激烈辯論這個部分. 除了法律上的差異, 我反對提出國家賠償原因也正在此. 國家賠償的正是警察行為的外部成本由全體大眾買單;相反的提告相關警察才可以迫使執法者造成的外部成本內部化.否則警察也會和濫押的檢察官一樣,繼續怠職與濫權而已.

 

[1] 詳見曾肇昌: 冤獄要賠償

 

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延伸閱讀:

走鋼索的民主

立即停止濫權羈押

 

4/27/2009 新增兩篇文章連結:

違法的羈押

天秤的兩端

 

 

 

王清峰：馬總統以身作則 司法獨立現契機 【00:15】(原文出處)